Week 1 of the college football season kicks off this weekend, and the best players in the nation will begin building their Heisman Trophy cases.
Finishing the seasons strong often makes a huge difference with Heisman voters — recency bias is a real thing. That said, getting off to a good start is important as well, especially against ranked non-conference opponents on national television.
Here are our predictions for the 2016 Heisman Trophy finalists.
1. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson (Winner)
Watson was incredible last season in leading the Tigers to within five points of a national title. He threw for 4,104 yards, 35 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. That’s amazing in its own right, but he also ran for 1,105 yards with 12 rushing touchdowns.
If Watson hits the 5,000 total yard mark and approaches 50 total touchdowns again, it’s hard to imagine him leaving New York City without the Heisman in his grasp.
2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
McCaffrey is Stanford’s best player since Andrew Luck was starting at quarterback in 2011.
He ran for 2,019 yards last season — one of just two FBS running backs to reach that mark — but his eight rushing touchdowns was pretty underwhelming compared to Heisman winner Derrick Henry’s 28. To McCafrey’s credit, he also tallied 45 receptions for 645 yards and five receiving touchdowns.
McCaffrey has the speed, vision and physical strength to put up similar yardage totals and more touchdowns in 2016, and he only faces one Pac-12 defense (Washington) that ranked in the top 30 in points allowed per game last season.
3. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
Big 12 defenses are a joke, and that was quite evident last season. Oklahoma’s high-powered offense that scored 40 or more points eight times and 50-plus points six times is returning several starters from 2015, including its quarterback in Mayfield.
He needs to increase his passing yards from last season (3,700) to make a genuine Heisman case, but his accuracy and efficiency in the red zone (36 touchdowns, seven interceptions in 2015) should help him put up Heisman-worthy numbers.
4. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
Fournette was the Heisman favorite last season before Alabama’s defense limited him to just 31 yards on 19 carries in a Nov. 7 loss. He finished the campaign with 1,953 yards on 6.5 yards per carry and 22 touchdowns.
Those numbers were fantastic, but his last four games of the regular season, beginning with the Alabama loss, were nowhere close to as impressive as his first seven contests. Fournette ran for 150 or more yards in each of his first seven games, and that happened once in his last four matchups.
He must be more consistent and give a much-improved performance versus Alabama on Nov. 5 to be a top Heisman contender in 2016. Luckily for him, he has the talent and offensive line to make those things happen.
Thumbnail photo via Joshua S. Kelly/USA TODAY Sports Images