With the individual training portion of the college football year in full swing, many fans are starved for information on their team. Many media outlets are taking advantage of this by putting out less than reliable information. Fans should keep this in mind when reading any information on their team.
As usual some media outlets are pushing Alabama and their “next star” Trent Richardson as the biggest rushing threat in the SEC for next season. Some are even predicting Richardson to be to offensive MVP of the conference.
Trent Richardson is a very fine running back that has accumulated 1451 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns over his two seasons at Alabama. He has averaged 5.65 yards per carry during that time.
These are very impressive statistics that many are predicting to explode this year. The primary reason for this is the departure of Mark Ingram to the NFL and his assumption of the role of primary running back.
Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson put out an impressive 1575 yards rushing during the 2010 season. This is quite impressive and only a hundred or so yards less than Ingram put out individually in 2009.
Alabama was the fifth best rushing team in the SEC for the 2010 season averaging 183 yards per game rushing.
Auburn led the SEC in rushing for 2010 with an average of 285 yards per game. Their top two running backs that return contributed 1903 yards to the Auburn offense in 2010. These two running backs averaged 6.87 yards per carry.
Auburn is replacing most of its offensive line for 2011, but it is hard to imagine them falling to No. 0 10 in the SEC in pass protection and fifth in the SEC in rushing.
It is likely both returning running backs for Auburn will exceed 1000 yards for 2011 if they stay healthy.
Mississippi State, Mississippi and LSU all had more formidable rushing offenses in 2010 and most of them return more key components to do so again in 2011.
Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina and Arkansas all had similarly effective running games in 2010 and most of them return as many key components of their running games as well.
Much attention has been given to a team’s reduction in rushing offense when replacing key components in the offensive line. In truth, this simply has not been the case at most programs.
In fact the most pronounced drop-off in rushing production in the SEC was the 2010 Alabama team that only replaced a couple of starters for 2010. This drop was only in the 30 yard per game range and not as significant as one would think.
History tells us that offensive strategy and game planning have much more to do with rushing production than does the replacement of offensive linemen. Green offensive linemen have historically been more of a factor in the passing portion of offenses than rushing.
In 2010 the lowest number of pass attempts was by Mississippi State at 288 and the highest number was Arkansas at 465. Auburn had the second lowest number of pass attempts with 296. It is unlikely a green offensive line will have a huge effect on them this year.
The most offensive plays by a team in the SEC for 2010 was Auburn with 948 and the least LSU with 781. It is very likely we shall see similar numbers in 2011.
Auburn fans can expect around 600 rushing plays for the 2011 season. If their running backs average a full yard less per carry than in 2010 Auburn would still produce 3522 yards rushing in the 2011 season. This is still close to 1000 yards more rushing than the next nearest SEC team could accomplish in 2010.
While some media outlets have decided to hype ideas without any substance, it is likely Auburn will again lead the SEC in rushing for 2011.